Six Nations: How and why Italy can beat France

Only France and Italy remain winless after two matches in this year’s Six Nations tournament and with the two sides facing off its highly likely only one will still be searching come the weekend’s close. The loser will likely sit at the bottom of the table from there on out with nothing but the infamous wooden spoon to show for their troubles.

The Azzurri have picked up two hefty defeats to tournament favourites Ireland and England, whilst France, according to the scores at least, have fallen short narrowly in their competition openers. A quick look at the results so far implies France should be able to brush aside an Italian outfit that has shipped over 100 points in just two games, even if them themselves are yet to taste victory.

Yet the tournament’s annual whipping boys Italy will be approaching Friday night’s game with real hunger and belief, eyeing a rare Six Nations win. Here are the reasons I believe the Azzurri will feel only a second win ever across the border isn’t out of reach.

Off the field antics

Forgive me if I’m wrong but if you’d just played an international test match in which you had horribly self-destructed to hand victory to your opponents would you then think a night out partying against management’s order was a good idea. No? Me neither, unfortunately a considerable chunk of France’s team don’t share the same intelligence.

Things then get even worse when Scottish authorities are forced stop the team’s flight back to Paris to question players on allegations of sexual assault. Although nothing is proven the damage is done and once again French rugby is sullied.

Head coach Brunel is left with no choice but to drop all players involved, which if the situation isn’t bad enough already, contains Teddy Thomas the standout French performer and only player to have scored a try. The matchday squad this weekend contains eleven new faces than that which faced Scotland a fortnight ago.

Teddy Thomas (Source: Getty Images)

One man that does make his return is Mathieu Bastareaud who made the headlines after aiming a homophobic slur at Sebastian Negri in a European club game. Negri starts for Italy and the inevitable conversations regarding that renewed duel are likely to give French rugby only more negative press.

The outcome of the whole fiasco is not only a PR nightmare for the FRU but also means they are forced to make further changes to a team that wasn’t settled in the slightest. The old cliché goes, ‘it depends which France turns up’, and we are now literally questioning which players will show up on Friday night as many try their best to get dropped.

Abhorrent form

Italy are used to poor runs of form, not that they enjoy them anymore than any other team but they are certainly more accustomed to such hardships. Captain Parisse will become the first test match player to lose 100 times for his country if his side go winless in this year’s Six Nations. France and their fans, especially at home, aren’t so forgiving of failure though.

Les Blues are currently on an eight-match winless streak, their worst since the 1960s. Amongst those games are clashes with rugby royalty like the All-Blacks and Springboks but a draw against Japan shows being favourites still doesn’t necessarily translate into wins.

The carrot is dangling right in front of the French, the Italians in theory offer the perfect way to end a torrid run but mounting pressure and two gut-wrenching defeats combined with behind the scenes turmoil mean nothing is certain. With Wales and England to come, defeat could mean a double figure winless run and the importance of this week's clash is magnified.

Unfamiliar surroundings

Traditionally France have played their Six Nations games in Paris but this time round they have opted to host one match in the country’s rugby loving south. The thinking behind this is to showcase the national team to a passionate fanbase of French support that previously would have to travel to Paris or abroad to watch a Six Nations fixture.

The Stade Velodrome and the French national team have a good relationship, only twice whilst playing there have they lost since 2000. Once to Argentina in 2004 and most recently to New Zealand in 2009.

In theory, it’s a clever ploy by the FRU to make this the match that France play away from familiar Paris, provided they win though. The fans will be baying for blood and only a home victory will suffice. As the easiest game on paper Italy offer you the chance to move down south losing the more customary home advantage but still being strong favourites thus giving your new audience the perfect taster. This could backfire though, early points and a lead for the visitors could really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

The Stade Velodrome (Source: Getty Images)

Although the statistics point heavily to a French win, Conor O’Shea’s charges will be hoping that the off-field distractions and unfamiliar test venue can help negate France’s home advantage. This will be a very different and far more raucous crowd than the ones seen in Saint Denis and Paris. Italy’s plan will be to turn the natives against their own side as well as building on their own support which they will be hoping travel in their droves from across the nearby border. Create a neutral feel and Italy will have a chance.

Mentality

Despite comprehensive defeats against Ireland and England, Italy’s reputation didn’t come out all too bad, being the underdogs awards you this kind of sympathy. France on the other hand were lambasted for the way their belief and discipline seemed to fall off a cliff in their second half against Scotland.

Italy’s game against Ireland was all but over at the half-time whistle and against England the Azzurri were put to bed by Eddie Jones’ clinical finishers in the dying stages. Amongst all of that though Italy have battled well at times, brilliant tries by Gori and Benvenuti highlights in otherwise heavy defeats. Parisse has helped anchor large periods of sustained team pressure and for much of the England game Italy were a serious threat. The same could be said about France when they played Ireland but that was more Irish error than French flair.

France despite losing by a combined total of eight points haven’t shown the same level of intensity or fitness, their only try scorer is Teddy Thomas who singlehandedly created moments of magic to keep his team in contention. His absence and ability will be sorely missed by a French team that have struggled to structure and build team attacks and have relied on individual brilliance thus far. Italy have shown willing in all areas and their defensive frailties could be given plenty of time to recover unless France can improve or at the very least start to work together.

With five different men crossing the whitewash four of which are starting (the other is on the bench), Italy are not short of try scorers unlike their counterparts. O’Shea has clearly installed an attacking belief in his players, buoyed by the obtainable target of a try bonus point accessible even in defeat. France will need to have their wits about them to hold off an enthusiastic and determined Italian force.

Henry Justice