The Breakdown: How teams are finishing

With the Aviva Premiership reaching a tantalising climax with a single win separating third from seventh, how teams finish their campaigns is going to be pivotal to their final landing spots. The difference for some could be a playoff spot or missing out entirely and not even securing Champions Cup qualification. So taking on the theme of finishing I reacquainted myself with the 114 games of rugby (Rounds 1-19) already played in this year’s competition to find out which teams were finishing the strongest.

	Total points scored in the last ten (Season so far)		Total points conceded in the last ten (Season so far)	Last ten points difference (Season so far)
Bath	81	87		-6
Exeter	103	53		50
Gloucester	50	68		-18
Leicester	93	46		47
London Irish	67	55		12
Newcastle	41	53		-12
N'hampton	46	71		-25
Quins	47	82		-35
Sale	48	58		-10
Saracens	79	57		22
Wasps	76	72		4
Worcester	63	92		-29

With nineteen games gone the most successful team in the last ten minutes (plus any additional time played in the red) is the Exeter Chiefs. With a positive difference of +50 points in this time  period they lead the charge ahead of Leicester Tigers by just three. Saracens come in third with +22 but the fourth team is far more surprising. Leicester, Saracens and Exeter make up the top three clubs in the division at the moment so naturally the expected tenant of the fourth spot would be Wasps. Instead, its London Irish who sit adrift as the basement club but yet are holding their own in the closing stages of matches. A clear indicator that their ability to hold on in the middle stages of matches and the way there starting is contributing to their downfall.

Bottom of the scoring pile at the conclusion of games are Harlequins. Having now announced they will split from John Kingston there is going to be a serious inquest at the Stoop as to how and why the Quins struggled so much. A starting point for whoever takes over at the historic London club will be to ensure a far more stable base to the finish of matches, a difference of -35 makes top six finishes exceedingly more difficult. With just 47 points scored and a 82 conceded they sit towards the bottom end of both charts with very few positives to draw on. Most other teams are either scoring or defending admirably, and the top ones, like Harlequins aim to be, are impressive in both columns.

Worcester hold the unsavoury accolade of having shipped the most points in the final minutes with a total of 92 to their name, 18.7% of their total points across the season. Also showing signs of a porous defence late on in games are Bath whose 87 points conceded in the closing stages puts thems the closest to Worcester. Todd Blackadder’s men come out even worse when you look at the percentage of their total points they are shipping at this stage, almost 20%. The saving grace for the West Country side is that they are scoring (the third most of any team) almost as many as they’re conceding. It poses the question of where Bath could be if their defence could keep 30 more points out to put them on a level playing field with the likes of Saracens and Exeter in this regard.

Considering a rugby game is of course 80 minutes long it would be rather expected that a team would concede and score a round an eighth, or 12.5% of their total points in the last ten. There is of course the argument that there’s potential for time to overrun past eighty but considering its only possible for a maximum of seven points to be scored in this added time it shouldn’t make too much of a difference.  As mentioned earlier when looking at the percentages of conceded points its Bath who come out the worst with 19.7%. The best off though is London Irish with 11.2%, although initially impressive its likely that this number is so low more because they are conceding so many more in the first seventy than anything else. A similar statistic can be seen with Northampton whose 71 conceded points translates as 12.6% of their total points against column. Is this also perhaps down to the fact that these teams are conceding so many in the early and middle stages of matches that they are out of the race and opposing teams are easing off come the end? Regardless of whether its down to weakened attacks or relatively stronger defences at the death, its at least a rare positive to build on for two teams that have been a long way from the top of any table for quite some time.

	Avg points per game scored in the last ten (first half of the season)	Avg points per game conceded in the last ten (first half of the season)	Avg points per game scored in the last ten (second half of the season)	Avg points per game scored in the last ten (second half of the season)
Bath	5.4	4.7	2.8	4.4
Exeter	5.0	4.3	6.0	0.8
Gloucester	3.2	4.2	1.9	2.8
Leicester	3.8	2.0	6.4	3.0
London Irish	3.5	3.5	3.6	2.1
Newcastle	3.2	1.9	0.8	4.0
N'hampton	3.3	4.3	1.3	3.0
Quins	3.4	4.9	1.3	3.5
Sale	3.0	3.6	1.9	2.3
Saracens	3.4	3.9	5.3	1.8
Wasps	4.9	3.2	2.8	4.6
Worcester	2.9	4.4	3.9	5.5

The defences and attacks of all twelve teams has fluctuated with varying success levels throughout the season and this is obvious in a few teams in-particular. Taking the total amount of points conceded and scored in the last ten minutes impressive changes can be seen from across the first eleven games of the season and the last eight, the second half so far. The most impressive statistic on the whole board comes from Exeter, in the first half of the season they averaged a relatively high 4.3 points (joint 8^th) a game conceded in the last ten minutes. However after turning the half way stage this number has dropped to 0.8 (1^st) just to add insult to injury for their opposition they have also increased their average points scored from 5 to 6. Less impressive though are the changes happening at Newcastle, in the first half of the season their last ten defence ruled supreme at just 1.9 points allowed, this has slipped to 4.0 (10^th). Meanwhile the Falcons have gone from 3.2 (joint 9^th) to 0.8 points (12^th) converted in attack, a statistic that could come back to haunt them if they miss out on a playoff berth. Considerable steps backwards have also been taken by Wasps. Gloucester and Sale have faltered in the attacking sense but have improved defensively however playoff hunting rivals Saracens and Leicester have seen notable improvements across both categories.

There is some truth in the argument that says the figures don’t offer a fair reflection, that a side could be 40 points up and concede two tries in the last ten minutes and still win the game. Yet they’ve conceded a relatively misleading amount of points in the final ten. What the figures do give an indicator of is which teams are able to fight to the death and whose fitness and discipline can stand the test of time to ensure their opponents get nothing or that they snatch victory right at the end. Although there are a few interesting numbers it is no surprise that the division’s leaders Exeter, the famously well-drilled and resiliant side, are cashing in the most during the final minutes of a match.