World Cup Final 2019 Preview

Courtesy of two very different semi-finals this year’s World Cup final will see England, bidding for a second title, take on South Africa who will be competing for their third triumph. The last time these two sides met in a World Cup was back in 2007 where they played out this same fixture with the Springboks winning 15-6, a game not without its controversy. Since that day they’ve met twelve more times with South Africa winning eight of them, but perhaps crucially and most encouragingly, England have won the last two.

England are the favourites; their performances so far have turned heads whilst South Africa have quietly gone about their business doing what they needed but no more. England’s victories have been born out of solid defence and exciting attack they’ve gathered speed getting better and better as the tournament progresses. Their victory over New Zealand perhaps unfairly described by many as a ‘surprise’ was brilliant, the score line flattering their opponents if anyone. A thrashing over Australia and a convincing victory in the pool against Argentina means the Boks are the last of the southern powerhouses to beat to complete a clean sweep. South Africa are however the Rugby Championship champions and their direct no-nonsense approach threatens a test of physicality far beyond anything England have come up against so far. It’s no surprise the Springboks are here, a pre-tournament dark horse for many they have adopted a clear game plan that crucially wins test matches. If South Africa pull their opposition into the old-fashioned arm wrestles that they love they can be a very tough side to beat, just ask Wales.

So how can we expect the 2019 World Cup final to play out, who are the key players and where are the crucial battle grounds in this mouth-watering fixture.

The back row and controlling tempo

Curry, Underhill and Vunipola versus Kolisi, Du Toit and Vermeulen (provided they line up the same as in the semi-finals) promises to be an enormous contest in every sense of the word. The battle at the breakdown and on the floor will prove critical to the outcome of the game, not only will penalties be won but the victor here can have a big influence in managing the speed of the match. It’s a massive part to South Africa’s game and is one of the big areas where England have improved compared to four years ago. Against New Zealand, Curry and Underhill were rampant with big hits and game defining turnovers, not only did this assert dominance but it also allowed England to play with tempo and front-foot ball from which they are hugely destructive. South Africa prefer things much slower, taking the pace off the ball and creating a disjointed stop start environment will play into their hands. If they can dominant in the tackle (of which these six will make a mammoth number) slow the ball down and protect their gain line they can frustrate and contain England who so far have not been made to adapt their game plan mid contest.

Territory and kicking are key

Kicking for territory is likely to be the easiest way for sides to get the upper hand and the ensuing battle from the base between Ben Youngs and Faf de Klerk is not likely to be the most exciting individual contest but could prove to be one of the most important. Box kicking will play its part but the clearing kicks from the likes of Pollard and Farrell will also be massive. England will want to keep the ball on the pitch as much as possible, kicking it off must relieve pressure or result in a substantial territorial gain, in the past they’ve been guilty of kicking for the sake of it. South Africa, however, knowing the strength of their driving maul and preferring a slower pace will relish the opportunity to keep England pinned in with the ball out of play for large periods. The Springboks, led by Pollard who is an exceptional kicker with ball-in-hand did a superb job of keeping Wales out of the red zone. The importance of this proven by the fact the one-time Wales did venture in they fashioned their only seven-point score, any more visits and the result could have been different. England are capable of attacking from much deeper than the Welsh though and so the importance of keeping the majority of the fixture’s play away from their line becomes even more essential. The English too will know they cannot allow South Africa to play large periods camped on their line, from close range the Springboks size and physicality makes them almost impossible to stop, whilst Handre Pollard’s boot means playing anywhere in your half risks three points being conceded.

‘The finishers’

The longer a team goes in a tournament the more their strength in depth is tested. The physical exertions on both sets of players will be beginning to stack up and those starting will once again empty the tank for their respective countries. Do not however underestimate the value of those on the bench. Finishing the match with cool, experienced heads will be the want of both coaches and having a sense of control and calm when the game reaches its climax is critical. Bringing players on from the side lines is obviously very important in terms of replacing those that are physically worn out but it is also a coach’s last throw of the dice in terms of changing a game. Wales bought Patchell on against South Africa to try and alter the match’s course, to try and inject a different style of play and make something happen. Both sides competing in the final have players that are capable of shifting momentum single-handedly or altering the makeup and threat of a team entirely. It was Francois Louw from the bench who won the crucial defensive penalty in the semi-final from which the Springboks then won another to ultimately win the game. Whilst Henry Slade who was on England’s bench against New Zealand can come on and shift the entire midfield dynamic, posing completely new questions to defenders who two minutes earlier had everything figured out. The effective utilisation of every man in the twenty-three strong line-ups will be critical and finding the right balance of forwards and backs on the bench could be pivotal.

Daly v Le Roux – the battle at full-back

Its highly likely that the two starting full-backs will be Elliot Daly and Willie Le Roux, two men who know each other well from their time at the Ricoh in Coventry. So far this tournament Daly has been brilliant under the high-ball, an area he has struggled massively with over the last few years. For large periods leading up to the World Cup there were calls for Eddie Jones to drop Daly and put in someone more reliable, he stuck with his man though and his faith, so far, has been rewarded. However, if last weekend’s game was anything to go by he is going to need to be at his very best against South Africa. Almost every Springbok possession was hoisted high and a safe pair of hands under it will be essential for England. Le Roux on the other hand hasn’t been quite as steady and England will have spotted this, his nerve too will be tested by the likes of Ford, Farrell and Youngs in a game where possession will be key and spills costly. These two will also be massively important going forwards, in big physical games with tired bodies all around the abilities of the lightning fast Daly and the magical playmaking skills of Le Roux could be massive.

Discipline

It’s one of the most obvious factors in deciding rugby games but the discipline of both sides will be tested enormously, penalties could well decide who lifts the Webb Ellis. Red and yellow cards for high hits have dominated this year’s tournament and with the game likely to feature plenty of big tackles its essential both teams ensure they get every contact spot on. Referees have already proven they aren’t messing about in this area so even the most innocuous of possessions could turn the game on its head in seconds if a player gets things just a little wrong. England have a few players in their ranks that have fallen foul to moments of madness in the past, controlling their emotions on the biggest stage is essential, even with a pack of goading Springboks in your face. It’s naïve to think neither team will be up at the other come every scrum, set-piece and break in play. We saw from Sam Whitelock’s petulant slap in the England New Zealand game what can happen to seasoned professionals when frustrated long enough.

PREDICTION

England 24-13 South Africa